A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
